When Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared “Emilokan” (“It is my Turn) in Abeokuta in June 2022, it was an act of defiance and determination, as he perceived that those who benefitted from his political franchise in 2015 and 2019, might be seeking to deny him his lifelong ambition for Nigeria’s presidency. It had emerged that the so-called “cabal” around President Muhammadu Buhari, if not Buhari himself may have preferred someone else, specifically Senate President Ahmed Lawan, for the job. Contrary to the context of entitlement which his opponents later framed “Emilokan”, it was a desperate cry of a fighter perceiving the prize was about to be taken by another! In the event, Tinubu’s bold outburst galvanized his supporters, Western and Northern and perhaps scared his adversaries into postponing the inevitable confrontation till another day. He went on to clinch the APC presidential nomination in a decisive and overwhelming victory.
When again Tinubu returned to the same Abeokuta in the final days of his determined campaign for the presidency, on January 25 2023 exactly a month before the presidential elections to chide some unnamed persons who he alleged were hiding petrol and changing the colour of the Naira, and defy them with the proclamation that “a ma dibo; a ma wole” (“we will vote; and we will win”), it was now evident that the most formidable forces Tinubu was facing were probably within his own camp! Given that the two policies he referred to were being implemented by the national oil company, NNPC and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), both major agencies of the APC federal government, it was legitimate to suspect that Tinubu’s unnamed adversaries were likely to be the same persons who had tried to deny him the APC ticket months earlier.
In my last commentary just days before the February 25th presidential polls, I wondered “Can Contrived Naira Scarcity Stop Tinubu?” It had finally become clear that the CBN Naira Re-design policy was formulated to prevent monetization of the elections and probably to stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from winning it! I also analyzed the rising risk profile of the 2023 elections as the sufferings imposed on Nigerians by the Naira scarcity and fuel shortages as well as apparent intra-regime fissures had increased the possibility of aborted or inconclusive elections, military interventions or permutations such as an “Interim Government”.
In spite of the elevated risks, Tinubu in my analysis remained the most likely winner. Indeed, my projections on a state and regional basis were mostly validated by the eventual declaration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Asiwaju of Nigeria! We expected Peter Obi’s Labour Party to do well in Lagos State, but we didn’t expect him to actually lead in Lagos State; we projected Atiku Abubakar to score more than 30% in Osun State, but he eventually won; we correctly predicted Atiku’s victory in Buhari’s Katsina; we expected and predicted Peter’s Obi’s strong performance in the South-South, South-East and the Christian parts of the North, but he in fact did slightly stronger in those places than we anticipated.
The concerns we raised about the possibility of a “Northern rebellion” against Tinubu in favour of Atiku Abubakar appeared to be borne out in several Northern states as reports that some Islamic clerics directed their people to vote Abubakar leading to his victory in Yobe, Kaduna, Kebbi, Adamawa (where we expected him to win nonetheless), Katsina (which we also expected due to his affinity for the state through the Yar’aduas), Gombe, Bauchi, Sokoto and other parts of the North. The rebellion appeared to happen, but the margins were not large enough to offset Tinubu’s overall lead. Our expectation that Tinubu will do modestly well in only two South-Eastern states was spot on as well as our projection that he would win in Rivers state. In the end, our overall projection that Tinubu would have the most votes and twenty-five percent in more than the required states would be realized. On March 1, 2023, INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmoud Yakubu duly declared Tinubu President-Elect. My colleagues and I at RTC Advisory Services and Stairways Communications and Advocacy can be proud of our output in relation to the 2023 elections!
I personally believe the outcome reflects the will of the Nigerian people in spite of some logistics, operational and technological challenges associated with the polls. I believe both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi out-performed expectations and should be proud of their second and third place results and even Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who won in Kano state should be commended for a robust fourth place finish. I regard the controversies over the results as unfortunate and hope any disputes would be determined peacefully and in accordance with the law.
Tinubu’s mandate as Asiwaju (leader) of Nigeria in my view is now to unite Nigerians; to resume socio-political and economic progress in Nigeria which has largely stalled over the past eight years and to make a bold attempt at accelerating Nigeria’s development and transformation. These would entail quickly resolving insecurity and insurrections wherever it exists in the country; to jumpstart the economy through new investment and sound policy; achieve enhanced economic growth in order to vigorously create new employment and reduce poverty in the land and stimulate both government and private sector investment in industries, infrastructure and services. Ultimately Tinubu’s challenge would be to improve the welfare and well-being of most of our people. I believe uniting Nigeria would require even-handed and fair leadership as well as strengthening Nigeria’s federalism to give all parts of the country the confidence to grow and prosper in their regions. The challenge of insecurity would require the devolution of policing to the states and in general the reduction in matters that are the exclusive legislative preserve of the federal government.
The new president’s work is made tougher by the revenue and debt challenges he will face from day one ad the scandal of so-called “oil theft”; the astronomical increase in poverty now reaching over 63 percent according to the National Bureau of Statistics; sky-rocketing poverty, insecurity and the critical policy challenges of a senseless and bloated petroleum subsidy that is said to consume N6-7Trillion of budget resources every year and the opaque and corrupt multiple exchange rate system that distorts resource allocation in the economy and creates vast opportunities for rent allocation for whoever runs the central bank. I believe that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is well-placed to address the nation’s challenges and I pray God grants him the wisdom, strength and grace to succeed. Amen.
